Blog Entry

Trading places

Posted on: March 21, 2011 12:08 pm

The five or more trades made during the first round of the NFL Draft each year really ramp up the excitement and anticipation felt during the event. Given the talent available this year, there's no doubt that at least that many will be announced by Commissioner Roger Goodell from the Radio City Music Hall stage on April 28th.

How many trades occur may, in part, be determined by the optimism (or lack thereof) surrounding the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

If teams believe the matter will take a year or more to be settled in court, much like the 1987 work stoppage, they will have to assume the league will operate under 2010 rules for the upcoming season(s). That means no rookie wage scale and those initial contracts continuing to include large amounts of guaranteed money.

If, however, a rookie wage scale seems likely to be enacted before this year's draft class signs their deals, teams may be more willing to move up to get the player they want. Paying out $10-$20 million in signing and other guaranteed bonuses to a top-five selection is much more palatable than the $30-$50 million included in each high pick's contract last summer.

Either way, teams anxious to land their top-rated player will undoubtedly pull the trigger on a deal. Here are just six of many intriguing trade scenarios for the first round of this year's draft:

Dallas (#9) trades up for CB Patrick Peterson

Potential trade partners: Cincinnati (#4) or Cleveland (#6)
Possible price: Second-round (Cincinnati) or third-round (Cleveland) picks

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones will find it difficult to stay in place if Peterson, the prototypical size/speed corner is still available after the top three selections. San Francisco seems a likely spot for Peterson to land if still available, so Jones will have to make a move to gain the type of star player he typically covets. The Bengals and Browns could easily move down and still pick up a fine pass rusher, defensive tackle Nick Fairley, one of the top two receivers, A.J Green and Julio Jones. Both teams could certainly use the extra picks to build roster depth.

St. Louis (#14) trades up for WR Julio Jones/A.J. Green

Potential trade partner: Dallas (#9)
Possible price: Third-round pick with a late-round sweetener

If the Cowboys aren't enamored with one of the top two cornerbacks (Prince Amukamara being the other), they could move down into the mid-first to pick up an offensive lineman or top five-technique defensive end like Cameron Jordan or J.J. Watt. The Rams are obviously in the market for a playmaking receiver to help last year's number one selection, QB Sam Bradford, get the vertical game in gear. They'll need to get ahead of Washington, Houston (#11), and Minnesota (#12) to ensure they can secure the services of Jones or A.J. Green, whoever is still on the board.

San Diego (#18) trades up for DEs Cameron Jordan or J.J. Watt

Potential trade partners: Tennessee (#8), Minnesota (#12), Detroit (#13)
Possible price: Early (Tennessee) or late (Minnesota/Detroit) second-round pick; may receive a late round pick in return

The Chargers have multiple free agents among their three-man rotation up front, and there's not a playmaker among them. With the extra second-round pick they received from the Jets in the (for CB Antonio Cromartie) and the extra third round pick brought in from Seattle (QB Charlie Whitehurst), General Manager A.J. Smith is in a position to move into the top ten if he so chooses. Jordan and Watt have value to 4-3 and 3-4 teams, so Smith may need to go up higher than expected to land his guy.

Philadelphia (#23) trades up for OT Tyron Smith/Gabe Carimi

Potential trade partners:  Jacksonville (#16) or Tampa Bay (#20)
Possible price: Third-round and fourth-round picks

Andy Reid is never shy about moving up to get the offensive or defensive lineman he wants. Though Reid has preferred larger line prospects in the past, Smith's growing frame, strength and athleticism may catch the eye of new Eagles offensive line coach Howard Mudd. Carimi could also be the type of no-nonsense and strong right tackle Mudd wants to work with going forward, and probably brings a cheaper price tag.

New York Jets (#30) trade up for OLB Jabaal Sheard

Potential trade partner: Philadelphia (#23) or Baltimore (#26)
Possible price: Third-round pick, possibly with a late-round sweetener

Sheard's stock is on the rise, and he would fit in some 4-3 schemes in addition to projecting to a strong, relentless 3-4 rush linebacker. If fellow 3-4 teams New England (#17) and San Diego (#18) don't snap him up, Rex Ryan and company would trade a third-round selection along with another late pick to make sure the Saints (#24), Falcons (#27) or Patriots (#28) don't put Sheard's name on their cards.

Washington (#41) trades up for QBs Jake Locker, Christian Ponder or Ryan Mallett

Potential trade partners: New Orleans (#24) or New England (#28)
Possible price: Future second-round pick and current fifth round pick

If Washington owner Daniel Snyder and head coach Mike Shanahan don't believe one of the second-tier quarterback prospects are worth selecting in the top ten, they may trade up to find a signal caller late in the first. A falling Locker would be a nice get for Shanahan, who could consider him a Jay Cutler-type prospect who he could mold into an NFL quarterback. The vertical arm strength of a Mallett or moxie/intelligence of Ponder could also entice the duo leading the Redskins to make a deal.

One barrier to this move is Washington's lack of third or fourth round pick this year due to previous trades for OT Jammal Brown and QB Donovan McNabb. Any teams accepting future picks from organizations like Washington desperate to make a move would have to assume there will be a 2012 draft, or at least make the trade conditional so they would receive their trade partner's second-round pick in the next draft, no matter when it may occur.

--Contributed by Senior Analust Chad Reuter


Since: Dec 4, 2006
Posted on: March 30, 2011 10:06 am

Trading places

This is the worst idea Ive ever seen on these boards regarding the draft strategies of the Cowboys.

Since: Apr 14, 2007
Posted on: March 30, 2011 9:25 am

Trading places

--Contributed by Senior Analust Chad Reuter

So...does this mean Rob Rang really likes Chad Reuter...or really doesn't like him?
Most go with the conventional spelling of analyst.

Freudian slip Rob?

Since: Mar 29, 2011
Posted on: March 29, 2011 3:36 pm

Trading places

I think ol' Jerry jones pulls a fast one on everyone.I think he's going to double dip this draft. He took Dez Bryant (WR) last yr. and this year he takes Julio Jones (WR) . Then he moves up in the 2nd.rd. and takes Rahim Moore (FS) or surprises everyone and takes Ryan Mallet


I think he finally sees the writing on the wall and clearly sees that Tony Romo (QB) is not going to win a Super Bowl anytime soon. Don't be surprised if they make a move for Carson Palmer (QB).He may even trade Tony to  Cincy or Minnesota for picks. He can't help himself he loves splash playas and he wants to win in the worst way right about now, to pay for Jerry's World.

Since: Oct 29, 2007
Posted on: March 26, 2011 2:22 am

Trading places

Jerry should be looking for O-line players that can pass protect and run block. Look for an experienced safety who has the experience to read the offense make adjustments and help Jenkins and Newman over the top. Darren Woodson was excellent at this. Ken Hamlin was alright. But if you want to improve the secondary, its going to be done at the safety position.

Since: Aug 9, 2009
Posted on: March 23, 2011 9:58 am

Trading places

Being a die hard cowboy fan i believe the cowboys need to move up to 4th ( bengals pick ) if peterson is still sitting on the board. With the secoundary issues they had all last year it makes sense to try and pick up what could be the best corner to come out of the draft in the past few years. And with Newman getting up there in age and Jenkins being a big question mark it seems like the best move...

Since: Mar 6, 2011
Posted on: March 22, 2011 9:10 pm

Trading places

great comments from nybites.  I think Von Miller is great, but truth is, LBs can be found later. Even good ones.  Is Miller worth a top five when you can wait and get bruce carter or Brooks Reed in the second?  Or Homan in the 3rd.....or mason foster or KJ Wright. No, they arent as good, but that position doesnt really require freakish atheltic talent.  While defensive end and corner do!  Peterson should get taken by denver. They wont, but they should. And if not, then Arizona should......and might. Prince Akuahmara (or however you spell his name) isnt that far behind Peterson and I bet he goes top ten. Dareus wont go past four, and i suspect JJ Watt is going to go way higher than people are projecting. Jordan might too.  Aldon smith, Quinn, and Fairley all have red flags.

Since: Sep 4, 2007
Posted on: March 21, 2011 12:58 pm

Trading places

my $.02, random thoughts, I take constructive criticism with the best of them.

I think the Eagles may stay put, Carimi, Sherrod, or Smith, I believe one will be there. The big push will be for DL and DE and someone will filter back to them.

I agree with the Redskins, and I think more than one team will try and move up for Ponder, Mallet, or Locker. The Redskins have little leverage so maybe in round one they trade back with SD, who really need Cameron Jordan. Then pick Locker at 18. who may be gone because the Vikings are looking at CB. Worse case is they get Mallet or Ponder, but it's a potential upgrade over Wrecks Grossman or Donovan McOld. Cincy is in this conversation as well, Palmer is disgusted and with the CBA being in limbo, they cannot trade him to Minnesota or trade for Kolb with Philly. But Washington also needs another bookend for Orapko, he cannot do it alone.

The Cowboys with only 6 picks, may stay put, but with JJ, you never know. They need OT, CB, and DL IMHO and moving back with St. Louis make sense, who really need a #1 wide-out.  At 14 Dallas can get their OT, but the Cowboys rarely take OL in round one so it's interesting to speculate.  Most mocks just pencil in Prince Amukamara at #9, it's logical, but with Jones nothing is certain.

I am not convinced Carolina or Buffalo take Gabbert, he is the best of a weak class. And I am one of the Newton doubters, just a one-hit wonder and an athlete for #1-3 overall.  To me Peterson and Dareus are the two closest cannot miss prospects, Dareus has more value because you can throw away from Peterson's side of the field. Bowers knee scares me, and Quinn is a fit for the 4-3, not every team can use him.  Von Miller has talent, but the value in the top 5 is not for a LB.

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